Political Parties

Weekend Polling Shows Walker up 3% Over Barrett

Oh it feels so good…

Feel free to post the image everywhere to demoralize and ridicule our political opponents.

Please note that while PPP polling is generally accurate, it’s also known to slant to the Left. Hopefully this means that we’re in even better shape going into Tuesday.

Walker has a 51/47 approval rating. He’s up with men (55-42), whites (52-46), seniors (58-39), and especially voters in the Milwaukee suburbs (70/29).

Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He’s winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37).

None of the previous stats are surprising – voters are breaking up generally among the categories we’d expect them to. Looking into the cross-tabulations of the survey, it shows that twice as many of those who voted for Obama are now voting for Walker as those who voted for McCain that are changing over to Barrett.

As with most close elections, it’s going to come down to turnout:

“What’s going to determine Tuesday’s outcome is pretty simple,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Democrats turn out in the same numbers that they did in 2008 Tom Barrett will win a surprise victory. And if they don’t Scott Walker will survive.”

This is where PPP show their Lefty slant. There’s little chance that Democrats would be as motivated as they were in 2008, and the polling shows that if both showed up at about the same rate, Walker will win.

If you’re a news junky like I am, then you’ll be paying special attention to the precincts that report early on Tuesday. Often they are a good way to see whether the state is tending towards one side or another, when compared to what is expected. Here is the breakdown by area code: