‘Ultimate Inside Straight’: Here’s the math of how Dems can still win the House
I’ve been wondering just where we are in terms of the math of losing or taking the House of Representatives and of course Steve Kornacki has all the answers. You can watch his video at the bottom of this post, or I’ll give you the gist of what he said.
Kornacki says the Dems can still take the House but it’s very unlikely, and he calls it the “Ultimate Inside Straight in Politics.”
So the goal of course is a majority which is 218 seats.
Right now Republicans are projected to get 222 seats and Democrats are projected to get 213 seats.
SO there are NINE races where Democrats can pick up a seat from Republicans. FIVE of those are in California.
BUT, there are 15 races where Republicans can gain a seat from Democrats. And FIVE of those are in California.
So, as Kornacki explains, Democrats would need to defend nearly ALL of those 15 seats from Republicans AND have to pick up nearly all of the seats that would change from Republican control. It’s a tough task.
On the other hand, Republicans only have to defend most of the nine races and pick up some Democratic seats to win the House.
Unfortunately, many of those races are in California and it could take WEEKS before we get a definitive answer to who controls the House.
And one of the very very far-too-close elections that could add a seat for the Democrats are Lauren Boebert’s seat in Colorado.
The margin for that seat? Just 73 votes. Incredible.
Here’s the video of Kornacki’s analysis: