Here’s What The New Hampshire EXIT POLLS Say About What We Can Expect…
So the exit polling from the New Hampshire primary election have been released. Here’s what we can decipher from them.
Early exit poll: Recent debates important in deciding vote? 65% GOP voters say yes https://t.co/9QeMXA3llS #FITN https://t.co/hoMafg3iF8
— The Situation Room (@CNNSitRoom) February 9, 2016
This is not good for Rubio when almost universally pundits said he did very poorly with his robot routine at the debate.
Only 23 pct of NH GOP voters are born-again or evangelical, in exit polls. Compare Iowa: 62 pct.
— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) February 9, 2016
That is amazing. When your rate of Evangelical voter dives by a third, you know it’s gonna hurt candidates like Cruz and Carson.
Also New Hampshire is filled with Godless heathens.
From ABC News:
Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment” – sentiment that’s boosted Donald Trump in Iowa and in national polls alike. On the Democratic side, fewer, about a quarter, are looking for an outsider.
While this will help Trump, how is it that Kasich is doing so well? And it’s not good for Bernie even though he’s way up in the polls. Kinda surprising.
There are plenty of self-identified late deciders, especially on the GOP side: Nearly half of Republican primary voters in these preliminary New Hampshire exit poll results say they finally picked their candidate only within the last few days. Fewer Democrats are later deciders, about two in 10.
This might help Trump, who had very little ground game in New Hampshire until Ted Cruz lit his toupee on fire in Iowa – he’s been hitting the state hard in the latter days, which might hold his polling advantage.
Strong conservatives account for three in 10 GOP voters in New Hampshire, vs. 40 percent in Iowa. That said, three-quarters in New Hampshire are conservatives overall in these preliminary results, up sharply from 53 percent in the 2012 primary.
Although this might be good for more conservative candidates, it’s also self-defining – I wonder if New Hampshire might have more left-leaning definitions of what it means to be conservative.
Surprising in state with big Trump pollng lead: 54 pct of R voters in NH says undocumented immigrants should have path to legal status.
— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) February 9, 2016
This is not great for Trump, and doesn’t really fit with this either:
NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) February 9, 2016
C’mon, you can’t be more xenophobic against one group than another, it’s against the rules New Hampshire!!!!!!
NO YOUTH SURGE for Sanders!!!
Roughly one in seven Democratic voters is younger than 30 in preliminary results, similar to recent years. They were a remarkably strong group for Sanders in Iowa, where he won 84 percent of caucus-goers younger than 30. On the other end, more than two in 10 voters are seniors, up from 13 percent in 2008, and Clinton’s best age group in Iowa.
And the oldies increased for Hillary? That portends a slimmer win than what the polls show for Bernie.
NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
— Meet the Press (@meetthepress) February 9, 2016
But remember our lesson from 2012 – the exit polls are utterly worthless as predictors of the actual election. Hmmm. In retrospect I should have mentioned at the beginning of the post.
And just for fun – here are my fake sarcastic exit poll results:
Preliminary exit polls show a plurality of New Hampshire GOPers considered themselves condescending assholes, a great sign for @JohnKasich!!
— el Sooper ن (@SooperMexican) February 9, 2016
New Hampshire exit polls:
65% hate big words – good for Trump
78% hate robots – bad for Rubio
54% hate the Constitution – bad for Ted Cruz— el Sooper ن (@SooperMexican) February 9, 2016
New Hampshire exit polls:
67% hate conservatives – good for Kasich
55% hate dieting – good for Christie
45% love naps – great for Carson— el Sooper ن (@SooperMexican) February 9, 2016
New Hampshire exit polling:
45% tweet in all caps – good for Bernie
67% have painful cankles – good for Hillary
50% love socialism – even— el Sooper ن (@SooperMexican) February 9, 2016