Four months ago, IHME model predicted 80k coronavirus deaths by August – we are now at 150k deaths

So I know there’s a lot of debate about where we are at with the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown. Here’s one interesting tidbit to consider. Just four months ago, at the end of March, the IHME model was predicting 80,000 deaths from coronavirus, and that was their middle-of-the-road prediction.

Their worst case prediction on the upper bound of the graph was closer to 160,000 deaths.

And according to official accounts of the deaths, we are at 150,000 right now.

Now, that is just one prediction, one model. I know that many like to quote the 2 million prediction by another model in order to try to prove that it’s just not as bad as it could have been. Then there’s this:

This was a conspiracy theory by many on the left, that Trump was overblowing the predictions in order to say that it wasn’t that bad, and that he did a good job. But Bill Mitchell is a HUGE Trump fan! So even one of his greatest supporters was thinking he did it on purpose to inflate the numbers to claim a dubious victory. Now that is what I call 879th level chess…