TrumpBart Reports Spurious 6x Jump In Black Support For Trump, But Not What Happened Next
Donald Trump’s propaganda news outlet Breitbart News is spinning an amazing fantasy world for Trump supporters who enjoy swallowing blatantly obvious lies, and one has to do with black support for Trump.
A popular post of theirs took data from an unreliable online poll when every traditional polling outfit has Trump down significantly, and breathlessly reported on a supposed jump in black support:
The poll measured the attitudes of the same group of people over time, which accounts for the wild fluctuation they reported in black support for Trump. What they’re definitely not reporting is how he plummeted back to Earth in the poll after a few days:
There is a jump on the 16th from 4.8% to 14.1%, but then seven days later, it drops from 14% to 4.6%. There is no post reporting that his African-American support collapsed by nearly two thirds.
But even if there was, it would be meaningless. There is a good reason it’s fluctuating wildly – because it’s unreliable:
Important note about interpreting vote estimates in this poll or any other: Smaller sample sizes associated with subgroups tend to have correspondingly larger margins of error. This may result in more day-to-day fluctuations than are found in larger samples. Thus, appropriate caution should be used in interpreting relative differences between candidate votes, and in interpreting changes in each candidate’s vote over time in these charts.
And if you do the math of the daily 400 people polled, only about 50 people determine the black demographic. That means that one person can toss off the average by a full 2%.
Now what is more likely, that Trump’s support among blacks really jumped by SIX TIMES as much, or someone screwed up in this admittedly unreliable poll?
But that’s the kind of self-delusion you have to operate under to believe that Trump is “winning!” among minorities, or anyone else for that matter. It’s gonna be real ugly when the echo chamber collapses around these morons.
