Obama Loses a Key to the Reelection
About two months ago the story came out about Allan Lichtman, the elections expert who had developed a system of prognosticating the results of presidential elections. It’s comprised of 13 keys, and depending on which side the majority of those keys fall, Lichtman has been able to predict every election since 1984.
So what do the magic keys portend for 2012? Lichtman says Obama takes it.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.
Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
Of course, many conservatives jumped all over this conclusion and defended our sacred honor in the upcoming election and our chances for victory, as most polls show us ahead, or in good standing. Michael Medved dismantled some of the keys on his radio talk show.
Looking back, it’s amazing how quickly things change:
- No contested primary – there’s quite a few democrats licking their chubby little socialist chops on the sidelines as they eye Obama’s weakness. Still on Obama’s side.
- Incumbency – despite the birthers’ efforts, no change here.
- No third-party candidate – this I think is a draw. A 3rd Party candidate would hurt the GOP if it were from the right.
- Major domestic-policy changes in his first term – ObamaRxCare is increasingly unpopular.
- No major scandals – Let’s count them off: Solyndra, Pigford, and the biggest threat, Fast and Furious.
- No major foreign-policy failures – Fortunately for Obama, all his failures have been discreet ones.
- Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term – Killing Bin Laden remains a big score.
- Little charisma by his likely opponent – this is too early to tell. Romney and Cain have both shown some charisma at times. Perry is a poor debater, but he seems on his way to swaggering out of the race.
The big change is thanks to the CrackHead Cop-Car-Crapping protestors of the Occupy movement:
- No social unrest
This decidedly moves to the GOP column, even though many think the movement will help Obama. No matter what the cause, having pictures of filthy unbathed hippies occupying populous cities and cops clashing with them does not help the standing president.
These were the categories the GOP had won:
1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent
As we get closer to the election, I’m betting some of the weaker “keys” turn over from Obama’s column to our side.